I haven't been this excited for an NCAA Basketball season to start up
as much as I am for this one. Florida, 2-time defending champs, are in
a rebuilding phase, but luckily they still have their coach. When
Billy Donovan wanted to pull out from coaching the Magic, he really
committed himself to Florida, and the recruits should start committing
to playing in Gainsville. Why? Donovan is banned from trying to get an
NBA job for 5 years, and there probably won't be a job available in
college basketball that was as prestigious as Kentucky last year, so
Donovan will stay in Florida for a while. The recruits are going to be
McDonalds good (not food, but all-star game) and Jordan good (not the
basketball executive, but also all-star game, and maybe shades of the
player). So give Florida a year to regroup because they lost 85.2% of
their scoring from last year.

 

From that 14.8% that is still there, there is one veteran leader in

Walter Hodge (5.7 PPG) and one big man who barely made it off

the bench during the tournament in sophomore Marreese Speights.

(Besides his first round 7-10 shooting performance, but that was

against a 16 seed.) I bestow upon Florida the rank of #30, with the

addition of two pedigreed players in Jai Lucas (son of
John Lucas and brother of John Lucas III) and Nick Calathes (brother
of St. Joe's senior point forward Pat Calathes). Alex Tyus is going to
be a dangerous power forward with his ability to hit the 3, and don't
forget about Jonathan Mitchell, New York's Mr. Basketball in 2006. He
will be replacing Corey Brewer in the starting lineup immediately.
Here is the Dubs Preseason 25, with a 5 sentence or less synopsis of
each Top 10 team because they just mean so much more and time is
money, so we'll make the important stuff money by substitution:

1.) North Carolina Tar Heels
Besides Roy Williams' admission to suffering from vertigo, there
aren't many weaknesses on this team. They were one Georgetown 15-3
domination of overtime from reaching the Final Four, and besides that
they certainly looked strong enough to probably give Ohio State a good
game in the semifinal, and maybe good chance against Florida in the
final. So the Tar Heels will be trying to prove that they are still
the team to beat this year. If this year ends pretty well, Hansbrough
should be gone from Chapel Hill, and probably Ty Lawson and Wayne
Ellington too. No new recruits this year, and only two seniors who
played very little last year, so things will move pretty smoothly for
the Heels, and Roy already has 3 guys lined up to replace the NBA
defectors.

2.) Memphis Tigers
Besides which motor oil to put in his hair to get that shine that you
usually only get from light reflecting off mirrors, John Calipari has
another tough decision to make: who will be his starting point guard?
Derrick Rose is probably ready to start right now, but Willie Kemp and
Andre Allen showed they were both very capable last year. Rose will
probably get the nod, but it will definitely be a platoon system, and
if Rose messes up, especially in tough early non-conference tilts
against USC, Georgetown, Arizona, and Gonzaga, Calipari will take
advantage of the fact that he has talent at point guard. Otherwise,
C-USA should be a cinch again for the Tigers, and Chris
Douglas-Roberts has a chance to be 1st team All-America.

3.) Kansas Jayhawks
Like Carolina, Kansas also had a disappointing exit from the
tournament. Rallying back to defeat Texas for the Big XII championship
got them a #1 seed, they had the same head of steam heading into the
tournament as Carolina. Brandon Rush is now a 22 year old junior who
looks like he'll be a first round lock in the draft, so he will be
gone after this year. The Jayhawks will have the same starting five
and basically the same team as last year minus the often passive yet
at times explosive Julian Wright. He will be missed, but Darrell
Arthur should be able to put up stats like Wright did last year, as he
went for 9.8 PPG and 4.7 RPG while playing 19 minutes a game.

4.) UCLA Bruins
Darren Collison probably isn't satisfied with the way his last two
seasons have ended with losses to Florida. Collison shot 3-14,
including 2-8 from 2, making his 5:0 assist to turnover ratio
meaningless. In the 2006 title game, Collison had no effect on the
game coming off the bench to shoot 0-3, hand out 1 assist and give
away 3 turnovers. In 2006, the Florida game ended a modest run of
backing up Jordan Farmar, but the 2007, Collison averaged 14 PPG and
3.8 APG (the 7 turnovers against Kansas were bad, but he made 4 free
throws late to help seal the game). Kevin Love will be a nice
distractor for the UCLA guards to get some shots off, especially with
his great passing out of the post. Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Josh
Shipp, and Michael Roll should complete the solid starting lineup for
the Bruins, which has a strong bench led by Alfred Aboya ready to take
over whenever needed.

5.) Georgetown Hoyas
Let me tell you, Gary Walters, how good I thought the Hoyas were last
year: so good, that they only lost one conference game in the Big
East...including the Big East Tournament. I shit you not that they
were good, with Roy Hibbert having a ridiculous year after his
breakout sophomore year as he went for 12.9 PPG and 6.9 RPG. And how
about them wings and guards, like DaJuan Summers, Jonathan Wallace,
and Jessie Sapp, who combined for 29.7 PPG last year. Though Jeff
Green now wears SuperSonic green in Seattle (and soon in Oklahoma
City), he will have a very able replacement in either Patrick Ewing,
Jr. or Vernon "The Big Ticket" Macklin, who was not ready last year,
but could emerge and take the spot from Ewing. And McD's shooting
guard Austin Freeman will be coming off the bench, but that, Mr.
Walters has nothing to do with why you kept Syracuse out of the
tournament last year, but the rest of my little paragraph
did...ASSHOLE.

6.) Tennessee Volunteers
Tennessee will always have a strong backcourt this year with the
return of SEC POY Chris Lofton (should be unanimous 1st-team
All-America) and Ramar "Greg Oden blocked me ridiculously" Smith. But
they could be stronger this year. Brian Williams is a solid center who
can play in a regular speed post offense, but Bruce Pearl can also put
in Duke Crews or Wayne Chism to impose the faster pace we got used to
watching the past two years. Iowa transfer Tyler Smith, who followed
Cory Brewer as Tennessee Class 2A Mr. Basketball in 2005, will be a
great addition to the Vols starting lineup after averaging 14.9 PPG,
4.9 RPG, and 3.6 APG and garnering third-team freshman All-America
honors and third-team All-Big Ten honors. Tennessee will have an
easier time adapting to playing speeds this year, but when they can,
they're going to run it down America's throat.

7.) Louisville Cardinals
Rick Pitino sure knows how to recover from a bad year in college, but
not so much in the NBA. After 2005-'06, it looked like Pitino would
not be able to compete in the new giant Big East as he took the
Cardinals to a 21-13 record along with 6-10 in the Big East. A deep
run into the NIT and a great recruiting class that included Edgar
Sosa, Derrick Caracter, Earl Clark, and Jerry Smith. Sosa started at
point guard for every game but 2, averaging 11.4 PPG after being the
least heralded recruit of the four. But Sosa was only part of a
balanced attack that had 6 guys scoring at least 8 a game and a great
defense that forced opponents into an assist:turnover ratio of .776:1.
All five starters return, including Kansas transfer David Padgett and
leading scorer Terrence Williams.

8.) Indiana Hoosiers
I'd like to make a collect call to Kelvin Sampson to tell him to start
IMing his players more (buy them iPhones or something) to avoid the
recruiting violations. I could probably just telegram you this
prediction, but I won't because the NCAA frowned upon too many words
per telegram and established the rule after Notre Dame managed to land
the Four Horsemen. Anyways, Indiana's season will depend on two
barometer players: DJ White and Eric Gordon. How DJ's foul trouble
(which gets bad when his offense isn't good) goes and how Eric Gordon
plays will be the biggest factors in how well Indiana does. Armon
Bassett will join the starting lineup after a solid freshman year off
the bench, and Jordan Crawford, brother of Kentucky's Joe Crawford,
will provide some help for his coach dialing from long distance
(ZING!).

9.) Michigan State Spartans
Drew Neitzel returns for a senior year that should be very special.
Last year, Neitzel had to step up his scoring (up to 18.1 from 8.3 per
game) and be a little selfish (4.3 assists down from 5.6 per game).
His assists:turnovers also fell to 1.84 from 2.86 as he became a more
aggressive offensive player. Raymar Morgan was the only other
double-digit scorer last year and will be starting again. More
consistent post scoring would be nice, and Goram Suton, the Serbian
Sultan of the Post,and Marquis Gray, will need to step it up. Izzo
will find some new post players for next year's recruiting class.

10.) Gonzaga Bulldogs
Something about this team screams that they will return to the power
they once enjoyed, especially with the regularly tough non-conference
schedule back again this year (Washington State, at Memphis, at
Connecticut, Tennessee). Austin Daye is looking like Adam Morrison but
with the ability to dunk and not need insulin injected regularly. And
if Josh Heytvelt is still trippin' balls, I expect around 18 and 10
from him. Jeremy Pargo could compete for WCC POY after having a great
season starting alongside the graduated Derek Raivio.
The rest (With one witty sentence to synopsize each team):

11.) Washington State Cougars
Derrick Low and Kyle Weaver are a great backcourt, but the strength of
this team is in the defensive tenacity that Tony Bennett learned from
his dad.
12.) Marquette Golden Eagles
Dominic James wants a better NCAA result, and maybe to be a first
round pick after Marquette failed to score 50 against Michigan State,
and the guard-heavy team will have quite the conference tilt with
Villanova, who have returned to their 4 guard system that got them a
#1 seed in the 2006 Tourney.
13.) Oregon Ducks
Aaron Brooks is a Rocket after having a National POY season that took
place as Kevin Durant had his, but Chamberlain Oguchi should step into
his spot on the starting lineup as a solid replacement for their
four-guard offense.
14.) Texas Longhorns
Damion James, AJ Abrams, and DJ Augustin look to show they can star
without Durant around, and 3 incoming freshman power forwards will
definitely lead to a change in playing style from last year's
five-guard set.
15.) Arizona Wildcats
Lute Olson is taking some personal time off, so Kevin O'Neill will be
running things, but he'll definitely have some help from the talented
team in place, including Chase Budinger who is expected to be even
better this year after putting up 15.6 PPG and 5.8 RPG, and freshman
Jerryd Bayless, who could be starting his first game and maybe
everyone after that.
16.) Texas A&M
Joseph Jones (13.4 PPG and 6.8 RPG), Josh Carter  (11.8 PPG and 4.0
RPG), and Dominique Kirk (7.2 PPG and 3.3 RPG) lead the Aggies this
year, and have help from new coach Mark Turgeon's class, which
included 7-0 center DeAndre Jordan, a late yet great signing (#2
center in the 2007 class according to Rivals.com).
17.) USC Trojans
Could you pass the OJ Mayo to go with some of this Taj Gibson (12.2
PPG and 8.7 RPG) and a little bit of that Daniel Hackett? Too bad you
guys ran out of nick Young (17.5 PPG on 52.5% overall FG and 44.0% on
3s) This should be a damn good season for Tim Floyd, who now knows
that he is a college coach.
18.) Kentucky Wildcats
What Kentucky needs is the attitude that Billy Gillispie fostered at
Texas A&M, and there was a good start when Tubby Smith got this team
to beat 'Nova in the first round.
19.) Pittsburgh Panthers
The backcourt should be good again with Ronald Ramon, Levance Fields,
and Mike Cook (combined 28.5 PPG), but Aaron Gray is gone, and Levon
Kendall was weird looking and also is gone, so newcomers Austin
Wallace (DNP at all last year), Gary McGhee, and Cassin Diggs (JuCo)
will probably be expected to help shoulder the load.
20.) Kansas State
Michael Beasley finally gets to team up with Bill Walker for what
should be their only year together, but it should be easy with David
Hoskins (14.5 PPG) and Denis Clemente (9.8 PPG) to help with the
scoring.
21.) Duke Blue Devils
A true basketball fan hates either Carolina, Duke, or both. Rejoice,
Duke haters, because Krzyzewski didn't reload the center/power-forward
position after the departure of Josh McRoberts, putting a lot of
pressure on Lance Thomas and Brian Zoubek, who were used rarely last
year, but the shooting will be good with Taylor King and Kyle Singler
coming in, an the backcourt is solid as usual with Greg Paulus,
DeMarcus Nelson, and Gerald Henderson back.
22.) Southern Illinois Salukis
The stingy MVC Regular Season Champs lost Jamaal Tatum but return bigs
Matt Shaw (11.3 PPG and 5.7 RPG) and Randal Falker(12.3 PPG and 7.7
RPG) and guard Bryan Mullins (6.3 PPG and 3.5 APG) return to look to
get another MVC Title and a birth into the NCAAs again.
23.) North Carolina State
Sidney Lowe is poised to take this team somewhere (preferably where
you can wear bright red blazers) after a great showing in the ACC, and
he returns 4 of his 5 double digit scorers from last year in Brandon
Costner (16.8 PPG and 7.3 RPG), Gavin Grant (14.7 PPG and 5.3 RPG),
Ben McCauley (14.4 PPG and 6.9 RPG), and Courtney Fells (10.9 PPG).
24.) Maryland Terrapins
James Gist (12.6 PPG and 7.2 RPG) and Greivis Vasquez (9.8 PPG and 4.6
APG) will be the leaders of this young squad (7 freshmen) that can
still make noise, especially if everyone follows Greivis' example of
shutdown defense.
25.) Villanova Wildcats
Scottie Reynolds looks like a young, careful Iverson, and Corey Fisher
is help bringing back the 4-guard set to where it became chic. Sounds
like violins to me.

Dubs All-Americans
1st Team:
F: Tyler Hansbrough, North Carolina
C: Roy Hibbert, Georgetown
G: Chris Douglas-Roberts, Memphis
G: Scottie Reynolds, Villanova
G: Drew Neitzel, Michigan State

2nd Team:
F: Taj Gibson, USC
F: Joseph Jones, Texas A&M
F: Chase Budinger, Arizona
G: Sean Singletary, Virginia
G: Ty Lawson, North Carolina

3rd Team:
F: Brandon Rush, Kansas
F: Darrell Arthur, Kansas
F: Damion James, Texas
G:Dominic James, Marquette
G:Greivis Vasquez, Maryland

All Freshman
F: Donte Green, Syracuse
F: Kevin Love, UCLA
C: Kosta Koufos, Ohio State
G: Johnny Flynn, Syracuse
G: Jerryd Bayless, Arizona

National Player of the Year: Drew Neitzel, Michigan State. Hansbrough
may get the press, but Neitzel has to do a lot more carrying with a
weaker Michigan State team than Poplar Bluff's finest must with a
stacked Tar Heel squad.

Freshman of the Year: Kevin Love, UCLA. His passing and scoring in the
post adds a new dimension to UCLA that will give opponents fits, and
he's also squeezing out all the info he can get from John Wooden.

Coach of the Year: Billy Gillespie, Kentucky. Well, if he can take the
Wildcats farther in the Tourney than Tubby Smith did the past 5 years,
Kentucky fans will make sure this happens or burn Myles Brand alive.

Top Nonconference Tilts:
1.) December 4: North Carolina at Penn
Pandemonium at the Palestra. I will be camping out at 4AM to get the best seat.
2.) December 2: Kansas at USC December 4: USC at Memphis
The biggest weekend in OJ Mayo's life includes a cross-country flight,
but a good performance could guarantee being selected #1 in June.
3.) November 29: Oregon at Kansas State
Michael Beasley and Billy Walker take on their first ranked opponent.
4.) December 29: Tennessee at Gonzaga
Lots of points. And magical mushrooms.
5.) November 28: North Carolina at Ohio State
The Buckeyes can prove they won't be taking this year of from being
the country's elite with a win over the top-ranked Heels. They also
get chances at Michigan State and Tennessee on January 15th and 19th
respectively.

Teams I follow:
Penn: might not make the tournament this year, which would be really
disappointing. I bet some Penn alums will set up an elaborate booby
trap for Glen Miller if that happens.
Syracuse: The Orange(men) look solid this year. Donte Green and Johnny
Flynn will be starting immediately, Arinze is back, Paul Harris is
just going to keep getting better and become a great pro player. His
shooting will be good enough by the end of his junior season for him
to be able to declare. Devo is just Devo, and reportedly this Belgian
dude Kristof Ongenaet can shoot, so I'm going to try to get his
jersey...the older jersey, not this skin-tight shit. And what is up
with Devin Brennan-McBride?

I'm out. After games start appearing on ESPN, I'll have a weekly
college basketball report up on the blog
(http://manualbuzzer.blogspot.com/), but until then, peace, love, and
hoop.

an f-m around the horn club production©2006 (cellson cellson)