Well, I figured it was about time I did a playoff preview, since the playoffs start today. I’m stretching the definition of “preview” a little bit- this is like when you would buy a VHS tape of a movie that had been released, and it would have previews for stuff that came out last month…remember those days? Anyway, before we get started, I just want to vent very briefly about Monday Night Football- the one with the Saints. Three things I noticed:

1. Scott Fujita, an OLB for New Orleans, makes a backfield tackle for a loss. His celebration taunt is to place his fist into his open palm and bow to the guy he just nailed- without a doubt, the COOLEST FINISHING MOVE EVER. Seriously, that was straight out of Mortal Kombat- was I the only one that saw that? How has that not gotten more attention? So cool. If I was an Asian linebacker, I would come up with a cool finisher like that.

            2. Theismann Complaint #1: Probably four times in the first quarter, Reggie Bush or another speedy back would slip on the new turf in the Superdome and lose their balance on a cut, prompting a mini-tirade from Theismann about the turf. Hey Joe, I know you’re an idiot, but they just had a huge fucking HURRICANE in New Orleans- you might have heard about it. It broke enough stuff that, somehow, the carpet in the Superdome wasn’t the city’s primary concern when it was time to rebuild. How ‘bout we cut the Superdome a little slack. Sorry the turf isn’t living up to your expectations. Like I said, little hurricane setback.

            3. Theismann Complaint #2: I know it’s an exciting game, but how hard is it to tell Reggie Bush apart from Deuce McAllister? Reggie Bush wears number 25- he’s the one with a trail of hundred-dollar bills flying out of his pants as he runs. Deuce McAllister wears #26. He is also a running back, so I can see how this might be confusing to you, but let’s get with it here, Joe. By the way, my favorite Theismann quote of the night came after Reggie Bush took one up the middle for three yards and a cloud of dust, instead of his usual sideline hijinks. “Coaches don’t always want Reggie Bush to turn every play into a highlight reel. Sometimes they just want him to put his head down and take it two or three yards the hard way.” Uh, Joe? Do you even listen to yourself? I can’t think of too many coaches that would complain if Reggie Bush hurdled four guys and went sixty yards every time he touched the ball. I think most coaches would like that quite a bit. But that’s just me. Who would have thought ESPN could have found a guy that would make me yearn for an insightful John Madden comment?

And now, the playoff preview.

ALDS

Yankees vs. Tigers

            Detroit (or, as they’re abbreviated in RBI Baseball, Dt) limped into the playoffs, even losing the stranglehold they had on the division lead to Minnesota (Mn- starring the likes of Gary Gaetti and Kirby Puckett in RBI). While manager Jim Leyland has been posting Photoshopped pictures of Montecore the tiger mauling Steinbrenner around the clubhouse to fire up his team, I don’t like the Tigers’ chances. The Yankees are simply too good right now, and very few matchups favor Detroit. There’s no contest at closer (Mo vs. Todd Jones), although Detroit has a better overall bullpen and, in the words of that little girl from the ESPN radio commercial a year or so ago, “Set Up Men.” Detroit does not, however, have the man that Jon Sterling considers to be the greatest reliever of all time, period- Ron Villone. If you break down the matchups position-by-position, you’ll notice that the Tigers essentially have the poor-man’s version of most of the Yankees. A-Rod might not be clutch in the postseason, but he scares me more than Brandon freaking Inge. The only area Detroit has the edge is at first base, but that’s not enough to carry them in a series. Detroit has a few guys that will make things interesting in this series, and they have a fighting chance to win games if they can take a big lead into the seventh or eighth, but I think the Yanks are just too talented and Detroit’s pitching is too young and vulnerable. New York in 4.

A’s vs. Twinkies

            This is the series I would have asked for if I knew going in to this season that Boston wouldn’t make the playoffs. These are two legitimate teams that have the potential to scare you. For some reason, Frank Thomas has re-emerged as one of the league’s premiere power hitters, and he has a lineup around him that seems conditioned for postseason success- a balance of youth and experience, power and speed, discipline and Milton Bradley. Thomas is like Toby in This Boy’s Life- he gets away from his dominating, abusive, not much older stepdad (Ozzie Guillen), takes control of his life, and goes on to achieve great things. The A’s don’t hit well enough for me to pick them for the World Series, but they can run, pitch, and play D, which was the formula Florida won with three years ago. On the other side, the Twins have an equally scary core of young players, as well as Johan Santana. Morneau and Mauer remind me of the McManus brothers from Boondock Saints- you couldn’t identify them if they walked into the room with their jerseys on (the “Mario Williams Test”), but they’re basically ruthless killing machines. In this metaphor, Torii Hunter plays the role of the batshit insane Rocco- not as effective of a killer, prone to losing a finger now and then in a clutch situation- but he knows the drill, and knows better than anyone what everyone should be doing, and where. Hunter is going to play a bigger role than you might expect in this series, especially since the pitching staff is without Liriano, and would theoretically have to pluck Brad Radke off the conveyor belt at the glue factory to pitch a Game 4. A’s in 5.

NLDS

Mets vs. Dodgers

            I’d like the Mets as my World Series favorites if it weren’t for Pedro’s devastating injury news at the end of the year- if the Mets rotation is the cast of the View, as I’ve previously stated, then this is the equivalent of Meredith Vieira leaving for Katie Couric’s old job. If you don’t think Meredith Vieira is all that important, consider this- MS Word does not AutoCorrect her name on Spell Check. That’s how you know you’ve made it. And guess what? It doesn’t correct Pedro Martinez either. So there. Analogy accepted. I’ll take the Mets in any Game 1, with Tom Glavine, and even in a Game 2, with 94 year-old El Duque on the hill. After that, though, we’re looking at Steve Trash-hole, John Maine, and Brian Bannister (or maybe Mike Pelfrey). The Mets need the offense to show up on those days, believe me- Reyes will probably have to tie his season mark for triples in every series with that kind of marquee pitching. This might be the first postseason series where starters are on a pitch count, just to get them the hell out of there.

            As for the Dodgers, they look good right now, but there’s something about them that just doesn’t feel right. I watched “She’s the Man” with Amanda Bynes recently (I was strong-armed into it, don’t ask), and throughout the movie, there were scenes where she looked good dressed up as a girl, but you just couldn’t get into her because you knew she was about to go right back to being dressed up as a dude, and you had seen her dressed up as a dude, and…I don’t know. I mean, it’s hard to explain. That’s the feeling I get from the Dodgers. They look good, but there’s something amiss there. I think we’ll figure out what it is as the playoffs progress. They’ve got pitching, though, and that’s essential in October.

            The Mets have all the offensive weapons you could ask for, but as far as the pitching staff goes? As Terry Benedict said to Saul Bloom in Ocean’s Eleven, “But mostly, Mr. Zerga… I just don’t trust you.” I have to go with LA in this one, if only because of the Pedro factor. Dodgers in 5.

Padres vs. Cardinals

            This series is like the recently released Dustin Diamond sex tape- you hear about it, and your immediate reaction is, “There is no way in HELL I am watching that.” I honestly couldn’t tell you which I’d rather watch- Screech getting it on or these two teams play at least three baseball games. Don’t know, don’t care. 

The bets subplot of this series, and a marker indicative of just how far the Cards have fallen, is that reviled ex-Mets closer Braden Looper, who played his way out of town in New York, is now the Cardinals’ best bullpen option. Like Kyle Farnsworth or Julian Tavarez, he’s good for one (1) bases-loaded jam, one (1) loss per series, and no fewer than three (3) hits per inning. This might be the only playoff series in history where Billy Wagner is considered the better closer. Well, unless the Astros and Brad Lidge had made it in.

            The Cards have a few nice offensive weapons, capped by their crown jewel, Pujols, but they have exactly one good starter, Chris Carpenter, and no semblance of a bullpen. If I’m the Mets, I’m not intimidated by the prospect of facing Jeff Weaver in Game 3. I’m just not. Remember, this is a franchise that was so desperate this year, they actually picked up Sidney Ponson- the equivalent of a high school freshman so desperate for action and status that he hooks up with Jana Wolf. Sorry. I won’t go there again.

            The Cardinals limped into the playoffs this year, a la the 2004 Minnesota Vikings. They’re running on fumes, and La Russa has some karma coming to him after Dubroff witnessed him taunting some kids with a souvenir ball. Padres in 4.

ALCS

Yankees vs. A’s

            Moneyball versus, well…well, I guess just Money. I think this will be a good “Thanks for playing” series for the A’s- I’m predicting about six bombs by the Big Hurt, two good pitching performances from A’s starters, four or five clips of Reggie Jackson in both Oakland and New York uniforms, one Barry Zito meltdown, four or five or twenty-eight clips of the Jeter flip play from ’01, and four Yankee wins. The A’s will need to play the best they’ve played all year, and the Yankees will really have to struggle in late innings, if Oakland’s going to have any semblance of a fighting chance in this one. Once again, the Yankees are just too good. Oakland has the edge, barely, in terms of middle relief and maybe starting pitching, but this is basically a big brother-little brother game. You know what would be a fun game? Write down Oakland’s starting lineup for each game, put it in a time capsule, and open it in five years to see how many of the guys you wrote down now wear pinstripes. Kotsay, Swisher, Chavez, Crosby- I can practically guarantee that at least two of those guys are on the Yankees roster by 2011.

Yankees in 6.

NLCS

Dodgers vs. Padres

            Now this is a series. You’re essentially looking at a group of rookies and Red Sox castoffs on each team- Derek Lowe, David Wells, Dave Roberts, Grady Little, Nomar Garciaparra, Bill Mueller, Todd Walker, Josh Bard, Mark Bellhorn, and Cla Meredith. We’ve got a few Mets castoffs- Piazza, Cameron- thrown in there to boot. This has all the makings of a great series, because there’s going to be a lot of emphasis on pitching on both sides, especially at pitcher-friendly Petco.

            The Dodgers will start between three and four rookies in most games, including Russell Martin, who sounds like he should be a lounge singer, but is actually LA’s stud catcher. The Padres have the best bullpen, top to bottom, in baseball, capped by their closer, What’s-his-name-with-all-the-saves. LA is the team no one wants to play right now, after their backbreaking back-to-back-to-back-to-back shots late in the season sparked their stretch drive. The risk you run in picking LA is that they rely largely on control pitching- Maddux, Lowe, Takashi Saito- and young guys- Martin, Andre Ethier, Chad Billingsley, Jon Broxton- to come up big. Still, you could do worse than Maddux, Lowe, and Penny to open a short series. The Dodgers will have to win games early, because there’s not a lot of breathing room with the Padres’ bullpen.

            This was the toughest opening series to pick, because in the past, both of these teams have looked awful against the Cardinals in Division Series matchups. I like the Dodgers, but just because they have the momentum. Don’t rule out the Padres, though. Here’s the five-point series test:

1.      Intangibles- Which team has fewer members of underachieving Red Sox teams? Dodgers: Nomar, Grady, Lowe (’03 Sox). Padres: Walker (’03, although they’ve since moved him to third, where he can butcher fewer grounders) Wells, Bellhorn (’05). The difference in this one? The same as the difference in the ’04 Sox- Dave Roberts. Edge: SD.

2.      Defense- Who gives you that sickening feeling when a ball is hit their way (better known as the “Edgar Renteria Syndrome”)? Dodgers: Jeff Kent, Kenny Lofton. Padres: Todd Walker, Bellhorn (in the unlikely event he plays), Todd Walker, Brian “Noodle-Arm” Giles, Todd Walker. Edge: LA.

3.      Offense: Who scares you more? LA sent a message to opposing pitchers with their late-inning home-run heroics- All your base are belong to us. LA’s not really much of a threat to steal a base, unlike Dave Roberts and San Diego. I saw these two teams play in Petco in 2005, and when Roberts got on base to lead off the game, everybody in the stadium knew he was taking second- it was like when everybody knew  the ball was going to Steve Smith against the Bears in the playoffs last year, and he still came down with it time after time. Long story short, LA’s pitcher (I think it might have been Scott Erickson, which is embarrassing for LA) throws over to first approximately fourteen times, unsuccessfully, at which point Roberts promptly steals second, and then third, on consecutive pitches. The fact that Jason Phillips was catching for LA is irrelevant. Incredible to watch. He’s like Jose Reyes- you can’t contain the guy. San Diego is the better offensive team on paper, and I don’t see the Dodgers pulling off enough miracles in the playoffs to win the series with offense alone. Edge: SD.

4.      Pitching: This one is harder to call than me when I’m out of prepaid minutes. As far as the bullpen is concerned, it’s a clear victory for San Diego, the way Lance Bass coming out of the closet was a clear victory for his career. As far as starters go, the edge goes to LA- they’ll just have to work a little deeper.

      Edge: LA.

5.      Manager: This one comes down to a head game. Bruce Bochy’s head is so big, New Era had to make a specially sized cap for him- true story. If you knock firmly on Grady Little’s head, you can hear a metallic clang.

      Edge and Game: SD.

WORLD SERIES!!!!11!!!!!

Yankees v. Padres

            I can’t believe I’m picking this Padres team to go to the World Series, but assuming the Mets are eliminated, they’re the only team that hasn’t looked bad all year. Granted, the National League is basically Quadruple-A (work cited: Ben Johns, care of Bill Simmons), and, at that rate, the NL West is basically the Pacific Coast League. I half expected to see that the Long Beach Armada were counting on Jose Canseco to pitch them through a one-game playoff for a wild-card slot. Seriously, how did that division send two teams to the playoffs? We’re sure Houston’s not in this thing? C’mon, they surge back every year right when they look like they’ve gone away- they’re like the Kelly Clarkson of baseball teams. Seriously? The Astros aren’t in the playoffs? Alright, then, fuck it. Yankees win. This is a real heroic story- they had to battle to stay afloat for most of the regular season with only $170 million dollars worth of talent instead of $200 million. Still, it’s nice to see the underdog overachieve. Heartwarming series. Over/under on Kevin Brown clips is at 9 ½.

Yankees in 6.